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FC Winterthur vs FC Thun — Super League 2018

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
FC Thun
FC Thun
A. Hunziker 38'
C. Ibayi 90'
J. Roth 43'
R. Arnold 22' (OG)
F. Meichtry 20'
12/16/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Winterthur32%
×Draw24%
FC Thun43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
1.36
FC Thun
1.61

FC Thun creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.38
FC Thun
1.51

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.71
FC Thun
1.35

finishing

FC Winterthur-0.38scores less
FC Thun+0.36scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC Thun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
57%
FC Winterthur or FC Thun
76%
Draw or FC Thun
68%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
14%
FC Thun wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
74%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
39%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
16%
FC Thun 1+ goals
80%
FC Thun 2+ goals
48%
FC Thun 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
43%
FC Thun (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.71 · 25 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.35 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.38 + FC Thun defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Thun attack 1.51 + FC Winterthur defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
32%
level
24%
FC Thun scores more
43%

FC Thun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
J. RothFC ThunFC Thun · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
E. Maluvunu← T. Golliard
14'
Luca Zuffi
20'
F. Meichtry↳ V. Matoshi
22'
R. ArnoldOwn goal
26'
Remo Arnold
26'
Remo ArnoldCard upgrade
30'
M. Martins← A. Jankewitz
34'
Leonardo Bertone
38'
A. Hunziker↳ S. Diaby
40'
Bafode Dansoko
43'
J. Roth
61'
Marvin Martins
72'
K. Imeri← F. Meichtry
73'
N. Reichmuth← V. Matoshi
73'
C. Ibayi← B. Labeau
79'
B. Stillhart← L. Zuffi
79'
R. Buess← S. Diaby
79'
N. Burkart← F. Rohner
80'
Roman Buess
86'
Stefanos Kapino
90+4'
V. Janjicic← L. Bertone
90+1'
D. Franke← E. Rastoder
90'
C. Ibayi↳ K. Imeri

Possession

41%FC

Shots

6FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
41%Possession59%
6Total Shots28
0.45Expected Goals (xG)3.09
3Corners5
14Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots28
1On Target10
2Off Target11
3Blocked7
3Inside Box16
3Outside Box12
Passing
41%Possession59%
293Total Passes434
197Accurate Passes354
67%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
7Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls16
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Super League: FC Winterthur 1–4 FC Thun

FC Thun beat FC Winterthur 4-1 in Super League on December 16, 2025.

Goals: F. Meichtry (20'), R. Arnold (22' o.g.), A. Hunziker (38'), J. Roth (43'), C. Ibayi (90').

FC Thun controlled possession (59%) and registered 28 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Schützenwiese in Winterthur.