FC Winterthur 1–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BSC Young Boys

8/2/2025

Super League · Round 2Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Winterthur42%

×Draw24%

BSC Young Boys34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.43

FC Winterthur

1.60

BSC Young Boys

1.43

FC Winterthur creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.35

creates per match

1.15

1.71

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.35

BSC Young Boys

1.15

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.71

BSC Young Boys

1.86

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

FC Winterthur-0.49scores less

BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

66%

FC Winterthur or BSC Young Boys

76%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

58%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

21%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

80%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

47%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

22%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

76%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

42%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

55%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.35 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + FC Winterthur defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

42%

level

24%

BSC Young Boys scores more

34%

FC Winterthur at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff