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FC Winterthur vs AFC Hermannstadt — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
FT
4 – 2
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
1/8/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Fanatic Tour Belek Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Winterthur45%
×Draw24%
AFC Hermannstadt32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
1.70
AFC Hermannstadt
1.40

FC Winterthur creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
2.06
AFC Hermannstadt
1.17

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.63
AFC Hermannstadt
1.33

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par
AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
68%
FC Winterthur or AFC Hermannstadt
76%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
55%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
23%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
82%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
51%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
24%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
75%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
41%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
58%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 2.06 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.17 + FC Winterthur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
45%
level
24%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
32%

FC Winterthur at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Winterthur vs AFC Hermannstadt

FC Winterthur beat AFC Hermannstadt 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2024.

The match was played at Fanatic Tour Belek Sport Center in Belek.