FC WIL 1900 2–0 SC Kriens: Result & Stats

FC WIL 1900

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SC Kriens

C. Silvio 66', 8'

1/20/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lidl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC WIL 190052%

×Draw21%

SC Kriens28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WIL 1900Expected goals in this matchSC Kriens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.58

FC WIL 1900

2.20

SC Kriens

1.58

FC WIL 1900 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.56

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

FC WIL 1900

1.56

SC Kriens

1.50

allows per match

FC WIL 1900

1.67

SC Kriens

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC WIL 1900+0.00on par

SC Kriens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC WIL 1900 ↓

SC Kriens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC WIL 1900 or draw

72%

FC WIL 1900 or SC Kriens

79%

Draw or SC Kriens

48%

Winning margin

FC WIL 1900 wins by 2+

31%

SC Kriens wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC WIL 1900 1+ goals

89%

FC WIL 1900 2+ goals

64%

FC WIL 1900 3+ goals

37%

SC Kriens 1+ goals

79%

SC Kriens 2+ goals

47%

SC Kriens 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC WIL 1900 (draw refunded)

65%

SC Kriens (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC WIL 1900 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

SC Kriens away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC WIL 1900 attack 1.56 + SC Kriens defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

SC Kriens attack 1.50 + FC WIL 1900 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC WIL 1900 scores more

52%

level

21%

SC Kriens scores more

28%

FC WIL 1900 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC WIL 1900 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

C. Silvio

66'

C. Silvio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff