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FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur — Challenge League 2026

FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
Preview
16:00
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
10/31/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 12Lidl Arena
Big match
44%
FC WIL 1900
model favours
44%25%31%

FC Winterthur score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC WIL 190044%
×Draw25%
FC Winterthur31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC WIL 1900
1.59
FC Winterthur
1.30

FC WIL 1900 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 35 away

creates per match

FC WIL 1900
1.49
FC Winterthur
1.40

allows per match

FC WIL 1900
1.20
FC Winterthur
1.69

finishing

FC WIL 1900+0.00on par
FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC WIL 1900 ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC WIL 1900 or draw
69%
FC WIL 1900 or FC Winterthur
75%
Draw or FC Winterthur
56%

Winning margin

FC WIL 1900 wins by 2+
22%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC WIL 1900 1+ goals
80%
FC WIL 1900 2+ goals
47%
FC WIL 1900 3+ goals
21%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
73%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
37%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC WIL 1900 (draw refunded)
59%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC WIL 1900 at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.69 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC WIL 1900 attack 1.49 + FC Winterthur defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Winterthur attack 1.40 + FC WIL 1900 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC WIL 1900 scores more
44%
level
25%
FC Winterthur scores more
31%

FC WIL 1900 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC WIL 1900 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of FC Winterthur’s matches
  • 70% of FC Winterthur’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
1900
WWLWL
Winterthur
DDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC WIL 1900 host FC Winterthur

October 31, 2026: FC WIL 1900 take on FC Winterthur in Challenge League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC WIL 1900 host FC Winterthur at Lidl Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.