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FC Voluntari vs Viitorul Constanta — Liga I 2018

FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
4/26/2021Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FC Voluntari38%
×Draw29%
Viitorul Constanta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Voluntari
1.15
Viitorul Constanta
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 59 away

creates per match

FC Voluntari
1.15
Viitorul Constanta
1.07

allows per match

FC Voluntari
1.04
Viitorul Constanta
1.14

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par
Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

Viitorul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw
67%
FC Voluntari or Viitorul Constanta
71%
Draw or Viitorul Constanta
62%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+
16%
Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals
68%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
32%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
11%
Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
65%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
29%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
53%
Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.15 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + FC Voluntari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Voluntari scores more
38%
level
29%
Viitorul Constanta scores more
33%

FC Voluntari at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FC Voluntari 1–0 Viitorul Constanta

FC Voluntari beat Viitorul Constanta 1-0 in Liga I on April 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.