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FC Voluntari vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
4/8/2023Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

FC Voluntari41%
×Draw29%
Uta Arad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Voluntari
1.19
Uta Arad
0.97

FC Voluntari creates 23% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 116 away

creates per match

FC Voluntari
1.16
Uta Arad
0.88

allows per match

FC Voluntari
1.05
Uta Arad
1.21

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw
70%
FC Voluntari or Uta Arad
71%
Draw or Uta Arad
59%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+
18%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals
70%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
33%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
12%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
62%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
25%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
58%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Voluntari scores more
41%
level
29%
Uta Arad scores more
30%

FC Voluntari at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Voluntari vs Uta Arad

FC Voluntari and Uta Arad drew 1-1 in Liga I on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.