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FC Voluntari vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oţelul
Oţelul
1/22/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 22Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Voluntari37%
×Draw29%
Oţelul34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Voluntari
1.15
Oţelul
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 58 away

creates per match

FC Voluntari
1.16
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

FC Voluntari
1.05
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw
66%
FC Voluntari or Oţelul
71%
Draw or Oţelul
63%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+
15%
Oţelul wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals
68%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
32%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
11%
Oţelul 1+ goals
66%
Oţelul 2+ goals
29%
Oţelul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
52%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Oţelul attack 1.10 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Voluntari scores more
37%
level
29%
Oţelul scores more
34%

FC Voluntari at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Voluntari vs Oţelul

FC Voluntari and Oţelul drew 1-1 in Liga I on January 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.