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FC Voluntari vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
7/17/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 1Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

FC Voluntari42%
×Draw28%
FC Botosani30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Voluntari
1.29
FC Botosani
1.04

FC Voluntari creates 24% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 158 away

creates per match

FC Voluntari
1.16
FC Botosani
1.03

allows per match

FC Voluntari
1.05
FC Botosani
1.42

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par
FC Botosani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw
70%
FC Voluntari or FC Botosani
72%
Draw or FC Botosani
58%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+
19%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals
72%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
37%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
14%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
65%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
28%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
58%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.42 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + FC Botosani defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Botosani attack 1.03 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Voluntari scores more
42%
level
28%
FC Botosani scores more
30%

FC Voluntari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FC Voluntari 2–1 FC Botosani

FC Voluntari beat FC Botosani 2-1 in Liga I on July 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.