FC Volendam 2–1 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

FC Volendam

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

VVV Venlo

B. Deul 48'

R. Mühren 14'

T. Dekker 22'

9/17/2021

Eerste Divisie · Round 7Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

FC Volendam52%

×Draw22%

VVV Venlo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VolendamExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.33

FC Volendam

1.94

VVV Venlo

1.33

FC Volendam creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 97 away

2.22

creates per match

1.28

1.37

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

FC Volendam

2.22

VVV Venlo

1.28

allows per match

FC Volendam

1.37

VVV Venlo

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Volendam+0.00on par

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw

74%

FC Volendam or VVV Venlo

78%

Draw or VVV Venlo

48%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+

29%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals

86%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

58%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

30%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

74%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

38%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

66%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 2.22 + VVV Venlo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.94

VVV Venlo attack 1.28 + FC Volendam defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Volendam scores more

52%

level

22%

VVV Venlo scores more

26%

FC Volendam at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

B. Deul

FC Volendam · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

R. Mühren↳ D. Kasius

22'

T. Dekker

46'

G. Hupperts← Y. Roemer

48'

B. Deul↳ J. Blom

61'

I. El Kadiri← G. Oristanio

62'

K. de Boer← E. Sorga

62'

J. Schroijen← J. Munsters

66'

S. Ben Sallam← A. Plat

70'

W. Essanoussi← C. Johansson

79'

M. Eerdhuijzen← J. Hilton

80'

J. Antonioli← B. Deul

80'

M. Kaars← J. Blom

83'

E. Hajdaraj← T. Dekker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCVVV

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots5

9Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots5

7On Target3

6Off Target2

3Blocked0

12Inside Box1

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

585Total Passes319

471Accurate Passes209

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Offsides1