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FC Volendam vs Utrecht — Eredivisie 2018

FC Volendam
FC Volendam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Utrecht
Utrecht
1/18/2026EredivisieEredivisie · Round 19Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Volendam32%
×Draw23%
Utrecht45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Volendam
1.45
Utrecht
1.75

Utrecht creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 136 away

creates per match

FC Volendam
1.35
Utrecht
1.56

allows per match

FC Volendam
1.94
Utrecht
1.54

finishing

FC Volendam+0.00on par
Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw
55%
FC Volendam or Utrecht
77%
Draw or Utrecht
68%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+
15%
Utrecht wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals
77%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
42%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
18%
Utrecht 1+ goals
83%
Utrecht 2+ goals
52%
Utrecht 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)
42%
Utrecht (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 1.35 + Utrecht defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Utrecht attack 1.56 + FC Volendam defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Volendam scores more
32%
level
23%
Utrecht scores more
45%

Utrecht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: FC Volendam 2–1 Utrecht

FC Volendam beat Utrecht 2-1 in Eredivisie on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.