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FC Volendam vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

FC Volendam
FC Volendam
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
9/23/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 6Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Volendam46%
×Draw23%
Heracles30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Volendam
1.74
Heracles
1.36

FC Volendam creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 117 away

creates per match

FC Volendam
1.35
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

FC Volendam
1.94
Heracles
2.12

finishing

FC Volendam+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw
70%
FC Volendam or Heracles
77%
Draw or Heracles
54%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+
25%
Heracles wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals
82%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
52%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
25%
Heracles 1+ goals
74%
Heracles 2+ goals
39%
Heracles 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)
61%
Heracles (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 1.35 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

Heracles attack 0.79 + FC Volendam defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Volendam scores more
46%
level
23%
Heracles scores more
30%

FC Volendam at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Volendam vs Heracles

FC Volendam and Heracles drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.