Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Vitebsk vs Naftan — Premier League 2018

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naftan
Naftan
4/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Vitebsk52%
×Draw25%
Naftan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vitebsk
1.57
Naftan
0.96

FC Vitebsk creates 64% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Vitebsk
1.20
Naftan
0.94

allows per match

FC Vitebsk
0.98
Naftan
1.94

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par
Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

Naftan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw
77%
FC Vitebsk or Naftan
75%
Draw or Naftan
48%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
27%
Naftan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
79%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
46%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
21%
Naftan 1+ goals
62%
Naftan 2+ goals
25%
Naftan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
69%
Naftan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.98 · 112 matches

Naftan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.20 + Naftan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Naftan attack 0.94 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more
52%
level
25%
Naftan scores more
23%

FC Vitebsk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Vitebsk 2–0 Naftan

FC Vitebsk beat Naftan 2-0 in Premier League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Vitebsk.