FC Vitebsk 1–4 FC Isloch Minsk R.: Result & Stats

FC Vitebsk

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

FC Isloch Minsk R.

3/3/2024

Coppa · Quarter-finalsCSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Vitebsk27%

×Draw27%

FC Isloch Minsk R.47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VitebskExpected goals in this matchFC Isloch Minsk R.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.42

FC Vitebsk

1.00

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.42

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.22

creates per match

2.06

0.78

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

FC Vitebsk

1.22

FC Isloch Minsk R.

2.06

allows per match

FC Vitebsk

0.78

FC Isloch Minsk R.

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw

53%

FC Vitebsk or FC Isloch Minsk R.

73%

Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.

73%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+

10%

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals

63%

FC Vitebsk 2+ goals

26%

FC Vitebsk 3+ goals

8%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals

76%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals

41%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)

36%

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.22 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 2.06 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more

27%

level

27%

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more

47%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff