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FC Isloch Minsk R. vs FC Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
8/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19SOK Olympijskij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.47%
×Draw27%
FC Vitebsk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.42
FC Vitebsk
0.99

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 43% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 114 away

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.40
FC Vitebsk
1.02

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.96
FC Vitebsk
1.44

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw
74%
FC Isloch Minsk R. or FC Vitebsk
73%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
53%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
23%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
76%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
41%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
17%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
63%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
26%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
64%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.96 · 124 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.40 + FC Vitebsk defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Vitebsk attack 1.02 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
47%
level
27%
FC Vitebsk scores more
26%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–0 FC Vitebsk

FC Isloch Minsk R. beat FC Vitebsk 3-0 in Premier League on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at SOK Olympijskij in Minsk.