FC Viktoria Köln 1–3 Verl: Result & Stats

FC Viktoria Köln

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Verl

1/7/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Viktoria Köln39%

×Draw20%

Verl40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Viktoria KölnExpected goals in this matchVerl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

2.10

FC Viktoria Köln

2.07

Verl

2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

2.14

creates per match

2.20

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC Viktoria Köln

2.14

Verl

2.20

allows per match

FC Viktoria Köln

2.00

Verl

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Viktoria Köln+0.00on par

Verl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Viktoria Köln ↓

Verl →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

FC Viktoria Köln or draw

60%

FC Viktoria Köln or Verl

80%

Draw or Verl

61%

Winning margin

FC Viktoria Köln wins by 2+

22%

Verl wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FC Viktoria Köln 1+ goals

87%

FC Viktoria Köln 2+ goals

61%

FC Viktoria Köln 3+ goals

34%

Verl 1+ goals

88%

Verl 2+ goals

62%

Verl 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

FC Viktoria Köln (draw refunded)

49%

Verl (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Viktoria Köln at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Verl away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Viktoria Köln attack 2.14 + Verl defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Verl attack 2.20 + FC Viktoria Köln defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Viktoria Köln scores more

39%

level

20%

Verl scores more

40%

Verl at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Verl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff