FC Viktoria Köln 4–1 Havelse: Result & Stats

FC Viktoria Köln

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Havelse

L. Lobinger 88'

L. Munst 51', 40'

S. Kozuki 14'

J. Rufidis 79'

10/4/2025

League #80 · Round 10Sportpark Hohenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Viktoria Köln70%

×Draw16%

Havelse14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Viktoria KölnExpected goals in this matchHavelse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.20

FC Viktoria Köln

2.83

Havelse

1.20

FC Viktoria Köln creates 136% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

FC Viktoria Köln

2.00

Havelse

1.00

allows per match

FC Viktoria Köln

1.40

Havelse

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Viktoria Köln+0.00on par

Havelse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Viktoria Köln ↓

Havelse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

FC Viktoria Köln or draw

86%

FC Viktoria Köln or Havelse

84%

Draw or Havelse

30%

Winning margin

FC Viktoria Köln wins by 2+

50%

Havelse wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Viktoria Köln 1+ goals

94%

FC Viktoria Köln 2+ goals

77%

FC Viktoria Köln 3+ goals

53%

Havelse 1+ goals

70%

Havelse 2+ goals

34%

Havelse 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Viktoria Köln (draw refunded)

84%

Havelse (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Viktoria Köln at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Havelse away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Viktoria Köln attack 2.00 + Havelse defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Havelse attack 1.00 + FC Viktoria Köln defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Viktoria Köln scores more

70%

level

16%

Havelse scores more

14%

FC Viktoria Köln at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Viktoria Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Otto

FC Viktoria Köln · F

9.2

Match Events

14'

S. Kozuki

39'

Johann Berger

40'

L. Munst↳ D. Otto

45'

Meiko Sponsel

46'

F. Engelhardt← S. Kozuki

46'

M. Ilic← L. Paldino

46'

J. Rufidis← J. Berger

48'

Tim Kloss

51'

L. Munst↳ D. Otto

56'

J. Agyekum← T. Kloss

60'

Leon Sommer

64'

R. Ott← C. Greger

64'

F. Ronstadt← L. Munst

77'

A. Rexhepi← R. Muller

77'

Y. Jaeschke← J. X. Posselt

79'

J. Rufidis

85'

R. Velasco← D. Otto

88'

L. Lobinger↳ L. M. Wolf

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCHavelse

Overview

53%Possession47%

23Total Shots13

3.28Expected Goals (xG)2.22

4Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots13

16On Target7

5Off Target2

1Blocked2

19Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

551Total Passes387

466Accurate Passes297

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves12

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1