FC Vaduz 4–2 SC Kriens: Result & Stats

FC Vaduz

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

SC Kriens

J. De Donno 89', 57'

S. Wieser 26'

N. Hasler 13'

L. Sliskovic 22'

N. Siegrist 9'

6/22/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Rheinpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Vaduz57%

×Draw19%

SC Kriens24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VaduzExpected goals in this matchSC Kriens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.55

FC Vaduz

2.45

SC Kriens

1.55

FC Vaduz creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.30

creates per match

1.70

1.40

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

FC Vaduz

2.30

SC Kriens

1.70

allows per match

FC Vaduz

1.40

SC Kriens

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Vaduz+0.00on par

SC Kriens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vaduz ↓

SC Kriens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

FC Vaduz or draw

76%

FC Vaduz or SC Kriens

81%

Draw or SC Kriens

43%

Winning margin

FC Vaduz wins by 2+

36%

SC Kriens wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Vaduz 1+ goals

91%

FC Vaduz 2+ goals

70%

FC Vaduz 3+ goals

44%

SC Kriens 1+ goals

79%

SC Kriens 2+ goals

46%

SC Kriens 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC Vaduz (draw refunded)

71%

SC Kriens (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vaduz at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

SC Kriens away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vaduz attack 2.30 + SC Kriens defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.45

SC Kriens attack 1.70 + FC Vaduz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Vaduz scores more

57%

level

19%

SC Kriens scores more

24%

FC Vaduz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Vaduz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

13'

22'

26'

57'

J. De Donno

89'

J. De Donno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff