FC Vaduz 1–0 Fehérvár FC: Result & Stats

FC Vaduz

AET

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fehérvár FC

8/1/2019

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundRheinpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Vaduz22%

×Draw25%

Fehérvár FC53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VaduzExpected goals in this matchFehérvár FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.65

FC Vaduz

0.98

Fehérvár FC

1.65

Fehérvár FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.80

creates per match

1.50

1.80

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

FC Vaduz

0.80

Fehérvár FC

1.50

allows per match

FC Vaduz

1.80

Fehérvár FC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Vaduz+0.00on par

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vaduz ↓

Fehérvár FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Vaduz or draw

47%

FC Vaduz or Fehérvár FC

75%

Draw or Fehérvár FC

78%

Winning margin

FC Vaduz wins by 2+

8%

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FC Vaduz 1+ goals

62%

FC Vaduz 2+ goals

26%

FC Vaduz 3+ goals

8%

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

81%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

49%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Vaduz (draw refunded)

30%

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vaduz at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vaduz attack 0.80 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Fehérvár FC attack 1.50 + FC Vaduz defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Vaduz scores more

22%

level

25%

Fehérvár FC scores more

53%

Fehérvár FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff