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FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
12/12/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Rheinpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Vaduz30%
×Draw24%
FC Basel 189346%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vaduz
1.29
FC Basel 1893
1.64

FC Basel 1893 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Vaduz
1.05
FC Basel 1893
1.65

allows per match

FC Vaduz
1.63
FC Basel 1893
1.52

finishing

FC Vaduz+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vaduz ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Vaduz or draw
54%
FC Vaduz or FC Basel 1893
76%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
70%

Winning margin

FC Vaduz wins by 2+
13%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Vaduz 1+ goals
72%
FC Vaduz 2+ goals
37%
FC Vaduz 3+ goals
14%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
81%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
49%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Vaduz (draw refunded)
40%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vaduz at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vaduz attack 1.05 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.65 + FC Vaduz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Vaduz scores more
30%
level
24%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
46%

FC Basel 1893 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Vaduz 2-0 in Super League on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Rheinpark Stadion in Vaduz.