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FC Vaduz vs Austria Lustenau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
M. Gajic 70'
T. Cicek 59'
S. Rapp 37'
Y. Schmid 24'
1/22/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Rheinpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Vaduz54%
×Draw20%
Austria Lustenau26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vaduz
2.35
Austria Lustenau
1.60

FC Vaduz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Vaduz
2.30
Austria Lustenau
1.80

allows per match

FC Vaduz
1.40
Austria Lustenau
2.40

finishing

FC Vaduz+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vaduz ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Vaduz or draw
74%
FC Vaduz or Austria Lustenau
80%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
46%

Winning margin

FC Vaduz wins by 2+
33%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Vaduz 1+ goals
90%
FC Vaduz 2+ goals
68%
FC Vaduz 3+ goals
41%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
80%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
47%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Vaduz (draw refunded)
67%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vaduz at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vaduz attack 2.30 + Austria Lustenau defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.35

Austria Lustenau attack 1.80 + FC Vaduz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Vaduz scores more
54%
level
20%
Austria Lustenau scores more
26%

FC Vaduz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Vaduz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Y. Schmid
37'
S. Rapp
59'
T. Cicek↳ T. Staubli
70'
M. Gajic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Vaduz vs Austria Lustenau

FC Vaduz beat Austria Lustenau 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 22, 2022.

Goals: Y. Schmid (24'), S. Rapp (37'), T. Cicek (59'), M. Gajic (70').

The match was played at Rheinpark Stadion in Vaduz.