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FC Urartu vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
West Armenia
West Armenia
9/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Urartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Urartu61%
×Draw21%
West Armenia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Urartu
1.97
West Armenia
0.96

FC Urartu creates 105% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Urartu
1.55
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

FC Urartu
1.01
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw
82%
FC Urartu or West Armenia
79%
Draw or West Armenia
39%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+
36%
West Armenia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals
86%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
58%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
31%
West Armenia 1+ goals
62%
West Armenia 2+ goals
25%
West Armenia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)
77%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.55 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.97

West Armenia attack 0.90 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Urartu scores more
61%
level
21%
West Armenia scores more
18%

FC Urartu at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Urartu vs West Armenia

West Armenia beat FC Urartu 2-1 in Premier League on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Urartu Stadium in Yerevan.