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FC Urartu vs Sevan — Premier League 2019

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
CANC
00:00
Sevan
Sevan
2/26/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Urartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Urartu52%
×Draw27%
Sevan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Urartu
1.42
Sevan
0.79

FC Urartu creates 80% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Urartu
1.55
Sevan
0.57

allows per match

FC Urartu
1.01
Sevan
1.29

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw
79%
FC Urartu or Sevan
73%
Draw or Sevan
48%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+
26%
Sevan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals
76%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
41%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
17%
Sevan 1+ goals
55%
Sevan 2+ goals
19%
Sevan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)
71%
Sevan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

Sevan away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.55 + Sevan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sevan attack 0.57 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Urartu scores more
52%
level
27%
Sevan scores more
21%

FC Urartu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Urartu host Sevan

February 26, 2022: FC Urartu take on Sevan in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Urartu host Sevan at Urartu Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.