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FC Urartu vs BKMA — Premier League 2019

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
BKMA
BKMA
3/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Urartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

FC Urartu53%
×Draw25%
BKMA23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Urartu
1.64
BKMA
0.99

FC Urartu creates 66% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 81 away

creates per match

FC Urartu
1.55
BKMA
0.98

allows per match

FC Urartu
1.01
BKMA
1.73

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par
BKMA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

BKMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw
77%
FC Urartu or BKMA
75%
Draw or BKMA
47%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+
28%
BKMA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals
81%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
49%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
23%
BKMA 1+ goals
63%
BKMA 2+ goals
26%
BKMA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)
70%
BKMA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

BKMA away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.73 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.55 + BKMA defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

BKMA attack 0.98 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Urartu scores more
53%
level
25%
BKMA scores more
23%

FC Urartu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Urartu vs BKMA

FC Urartu beat BKMA 4-1 in Premier League on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Urartu Stadium in Yerevan.