FC Urartu 0–2 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

FC Urartu

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Baník Ostrava

8/1/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundUrartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Urartu27%

×Draw30%

Baník Ostrava43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UrartuExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.18

FC Urartu

0.88

Baník Ostrava

1.18

Baník Ostrava creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

1.60

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

FC Urartu

1.00

Baník Ostrava

0.75

allows per match

FC Urartu

1.60

Baník Ostrava

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw

57%

FC Urartu or Baník Ostrava

70%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

73%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+

9%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals

59%

FC Urartu 2+ goals

22%

FC Urartu 3+ goals

6%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

69%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

33%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)

39%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.00 + Baník Ostrava defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Baník Ostrava attack 0.75 + FC Urartu defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Urartu scores more

27%

level

30%

Baník Ostrava scores more

43%

Baník Ostrava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff