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FC Urartu vs Ararat — Premier League 2019

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ararat
Ararat
11/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Urartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Urartu49%
×Draw25%
Ararat26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Urartu
1.59
Ararat
1.07

FC Urartu creates 49% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 107 away

creates per match

FC Urartu
1.55
Ararat
1.14

allows per match

FC Urartu
1.01
Ararat
1.64

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw
74%
FC Urartu or Ararat
75%
Draw or Ararat
51%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+
26%
Ararat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals
80%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
47%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
21%
Ararat 1+ goals
66%
Ararat 2+ goals
29%
Ararat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)
66%
Ararat (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

Ararat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.55 + Ararat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ararat attack 1.14 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Urartu scores more
49%
level
25%
Ararat scores more
26%

FC Urartu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Urartu 2–1 Ararat

FC Urartu beat Ararat 2-1 in Premier League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Urartu Stadium in Yerevan.