Ararat 0–1 FC Urartu: Result & Stats

Ararat

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Urartu

11/3/2025

Premier League · Round 12Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Ararat29%

×Draw27%

FC Urartu44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AraratExpected goals in this matchFC Urartu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.36

Ararat

1.05

FC Urartu

1.36

FC Urartu creates 30% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 105 away

1.09

creates per match

1.49

1.23

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Ararat

1.09

FC Urartu

1.49

allows per match

Ararat

1.23

FC Urartu

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat+0.00on par

FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat ↓

FC Urartu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ararat or draw

56%

Ararat or FC Urartu

73%

Draw or FC Urartu

71%

Winning margin

Ararat wins by 2+

11%

FC Urartu wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ararat 1+ goals

65%

Ararat 2+ goals

28%

Ararat 3+ goals

9%

FC Urartu 1+ goals

74%

FC Urartu 2+ goals

39%

FC Urartu 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ararat (draw refunded)

40%

FC Urartu (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat attack 1.09 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.05

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + Ararat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ararat scores more

29%

level

27%

FC Urartu scores more

44%

FC Urartu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff