FC UFA 1–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats | Cup

FC UFA

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

K. Troyanov 90+1'

D. Poloz 69' (pen)

9/26/2023

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundBetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC UFA41%

×Draw28%

Torpedo Moskva31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.09

FC UFA

1.29

Torpedo Moskva

1.09

FC UFA creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

1.38

0.80

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

FC UFA

1.20

Torpedo Moskva

1.38

allows per match

FC UFA

0.80

Torpedo Moskva

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

69%

FC UFA or Torpedo Moskva

72%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

59%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

18%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

72%

FC UFA 2+ goals

37%

FC UFA 3+ goals

14%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

66%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

30%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

57%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.20 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.38 + FC UFA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC UFA scores more

41%

level

28%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

31%

FC UFA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Perchenok← L. Mukhametshin

46'

D. Kutin← A. Shavaev

56'

A. Orekhov← G. Shevchenko

59'

R. Minaev← O. Oznobikhin

59'

I. Molteninov← I. Khleborodov

69'

D. PolozPenalty

73'

A. Usanov← I. Gorbunov

77'

D. Grigorjev← A. Lyakh

83'

88'

88'

90'

90+1'

Torpedo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

46'▲A. Perchenok←▼L. Mukhametshin

46'▲D. Kutin←▼A. Shavaev

59'▲R. Minaev←▼O. Oznobikhin

59'▲I. Molteninov←▼I. Khleborodov

77'▲D. Grigorjev←▼A. Lyakh

FC UFA substitutes

PerchenokKutinMinaevMolteninovGrigorjev

Manager: Pep Clotet

56'▲A. Orekhov←▼G. Shevchenko

73'▲A. Usanov←▼I. Gorbunov

83'▲D. Shamkin←▼D. Poloz

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

OrekhovUsanovShamkin