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FC UFA vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rubin
Rubin
3/14/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

FC UFA39%
×Draw28%
Rubin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.21
Rubin
1.06

FC UFA creates 14% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.02
Rubin
1.02

allows per match

FC UFA
1.11
Rubin
1.39

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
68%
FC UFA or Rubin
72%
Draw or Rubin
61%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
17%
Rubin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
34%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
Rubin 1+ goals
65%
Rubin 2+ goals
29%
Rubin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
55%
Rubin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.02 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rubin attack 1.02 + FC UFA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC UFA scores more
39%
level
28%
Rubin scores more
32%

FC UFA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC UFA vs Rubin

Rubin beat FC UFA 3-0 in Premier League on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Ufa.