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FC UFA vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2024

FC UFA
FC UFA
Preview
15:00
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
5/1/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 30BetBoom Arena
Big match
38%
FC UFA
model favours
38%28%34%

Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC UFA38%
×Draw28%
Rotor Volgograd34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.19
Rotor Volgograd
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.38
Rotor Volgograd
1.08

allows per match

FC UFA
1.16
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
66%
FC UFA or Rotor Volgograd
72%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
62%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
16%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
33%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
67%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
31%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
52%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.38 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.08 + FC UFA defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC UFA scores more
38%
level
28%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
34%

FC UFA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC UFA sit 1, Rotor Volgograd 15 in the table
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
UFA
WLLDW
Volgograd
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC UFA vs Rotor Volgograd — Match Preview

FC UFA face Rotor Volgograd on May 1, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC UFA host Rotor Volgograd at BetBoom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.