FC UFA 1–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

FC UFA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

D. Ortiz 72' (pen)

5/10/2026

First League · Round 33BetBoom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA35%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.11

FC UFA

1.09

Rotor Volgograd

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 87 away

1.23

creates per match

1.06

1.17

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

FC UFA

1.23

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

FC UFA

1.17

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

64%

FC UFA or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

65%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

14%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

66%

FC UFA 2+ goals

30%

FC UFA 3+ goals

10%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

67%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

30%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

49%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FC UFA scores more

35%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

36%

Rotor Volgograd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

29'

30'

37'

46'

G. Shilnikov← M. Khramtsov

61'

M. Ageyan← D. Akhatov

63'

Egor Danilkin

65'

A. Troshechkin← S. Makarov

65'

A. Eldarushev← I. Aznaurov

70'

Gleb Shilnikov

72'

D. OrtizPenalty

75'

A. Khokhlachev← I. Rodionov

89'

O. Minatulaev← M. Yakuev

90+4'

I. Khomukha← S. Isaev

FC4-2-3-1

Rotor4-1-4-1

22

Aliev

69

▼

Rodionov

7

Safronov

18

Kaynov

73

▼

Aznaurov

6

▼

Makarov

34

▼

15

2

97

13

31

7

5

15

14

79

8

▼

Isaev

23

▼

Akhatov

71

▼

Yakuev

96

Baranovsk

70

⚽

Ortiz

Manager: Omari Tetradze

61'▲M. Ageyan←▼D. Akhatov

89'▲O. Minatulaev←▼M. Yakuev

90+4'▲I. Khomukha←▼S. Isaev

FC UFA substitutes

1Lomaev50Khomukha17Ozmanov97Polesovshchikov24Mrzljak12Lipovoy88Ageyan19Mayorov11Minatulaev

Manager: Denis Boyarintsev

46'▲G. Shilnikov←▼M. Khramtsov

65'▲A. Troshechkin←▼S. Makarov

65'▲A. Eldarushev←▼I. Aznaurov

75'▲A. Khokhlachev←▼I. Rodionov

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

50Sugrobov99Litvenok37Fomin17Shilnikov90Tsipushtanov5Troshechkin70Khokhlachev77Eldarushev

First League: FC UFA 1–0 Rotor Volgograd

FC UFA beat Rotor Volgograd 1-0 in First League on May 10, 2026.

Goals: D. Ortiz (72' pen).

The match was played at BetBoom Arena in Ufa.

FC UFA vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: FC UFA 1–0 Rotor Volgograd