FC UFA 0–0 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

FC UFA

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rodina Moskva

8/16/2025

First League · Round 5BetBoom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA32%

×Draw28%

Rodina Moskva40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.25

FC UFA

1.10

Rodina Moskva

1.25

Rodina Moskva creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

1.23

creates per match

1.32

1.17

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

FC UFA

1.23

Rodina Moskva

1.32

allows per match

FC UFA

1.17

Rodina Moskva

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

60%

FC UFA or Rodina Moskva

72%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

68%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

13%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

67%

FC UFA 2+ goals

30%

FC UFA 3+ goals

10%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

71%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

36%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

45%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC UFA scores more

32%

level

28%

Rodina Moskva scores more

40%

Rodina Moskva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff