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FC UFA vs KAMAZ — First League 2024

FC UFA
FC UFA
Preview
14:00
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
8/3/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 4BetBoom Arena
Big match
41%
FC UFA
model favours
41%29%31%

FC UFA sit 1, KAMAZ 16 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC UFA41%
×Draw29%
KAMAZ31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.20
KAMAZ
1.00

FC UFA creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.31
KAMAZ
0.81

allows per match

FC UFA
1.20
KAMAZ
1.08

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
69%
FC UFA or KAMAZ
71%
Draw or KAMAZ
59%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
17%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
34%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
63%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
26%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
57%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.31 + KAMAZ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

KAMAZ attack 0.81 + FC UFA defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC UFA scores more
41%
level
29%
KAMAZ scores more
31%

FC UFA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
UFA
WLLDW
KAMAZ
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC UFA face KAMAZ (First League)

First League returns with FC UFA hosting KAMAZ. Match starts August 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC UFA host KAMAZ at BetBoom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.