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FC UFA vs KAMAZ — First League 2019

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
A. Tenyaev 67'
A. Gurenko 40'
B. Fartuna 84' (pen)
11/2/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 17BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA43%
×Draw29%
KAMAZ28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.21
KAMAZ
0.92

FC UFA creates 32% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 88 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.23
KAMAZ
0.66

allows per match

FC UFA
1.17
KAMAZ
1.19

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
72%
FC UFA or KAMAZ
71%
Draw or KAMAZ
57%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
19%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
34%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
60%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
23%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
60%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + KAMAZ defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

KAMAZ attack 0.66 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC UFA scores more
43%
level
29%
KAMAZ scores more
28%

FC UFA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
A. Gurenko
63'
A. Abramov← R. Ayukin
63'
D. Karaev← R. Apekov
63'
B. Fartuna← M. Lauk
67'
A. Tenyaev
74'
S. Abdullaev← D. Starodub
75'
Denis Kutin
77'
A. Perchenok← V. Lozhkin
77'
V. Garaev← A. Anisimov
79'
D. Marugin← Y. Kirillov
82'
Roman Pasevich
84'
B. FartunaPenalty
88'
G. Zakharov← R. Pasevich
90+2'
R. Gystarov← M. Ageyan

Statistics

FCKAMAZ
Discipline
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FC UFA vs KAMAZ

FC UFA beat KAMAZ 2-1 in First League on November 2, 2024.

Goals: A. Gurenko (40'), A. Tenyaev (67'), B. Fartuna (84' pen).

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.