FC UFA 3–0 Enisey: Result & Stats | First League

FC UFA

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Enisey

D. Ortiz 79', 7'

A. Khabalov 57'

11/3/2025

First League · Round 17BetBoom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA42%

×Draw27%

Enisey31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

FC UFA

1.33

Enisey

1.09

FC UFA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 124 away

1.23

creates per match

1.02

1.17

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

FC UFA

1.23

Enisey

1.02

allows per match

FC UFA

1.17

Enisey

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

69%

FC UFA or Enisey

73%

Draw or Enisey

58%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

19%

Enisey wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

74%

FC UFA 2+ goals

38%

FC UFA 3+ goals

15%

Enisey 1+ goals

66%

Enisey 2+ goals

30%

Enisey 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

58%

Enisey (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Enisey attack 1.02 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC UFA scores more

42%

level

27%

Enisey scores more

31%

FC UFA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Ortiz

46'

E. Shlyakov← D. Ozmanov

46'

F. Mrzljak← A. Baranovsky

50'

Evgeniy Shlyakov

57'

A. Khabalov

60'

A. Pogosov← A. Nadolskiy

60'

L. Ratkovic← A. Okladnikov

60'

A. Khashkulov← R. Ogienko

63'

Luka Ratković

69'

V. Krotov← E. Ivanov

79'

D. Ortiz

82'

A. Gyurdzhan← Y. Tses

85'

R. Gystarov← S. Isaev

86'

I. Karpuk← D. Ortiz

88'

I. Khanenko← A. Khabalov

Statistics

FCEnisey

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

First League: FC UFA 3–0 Enisey

FC UFA beat Enisey 3-0 in First League on November 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Ortiz (7', 79'), A. Khabalov (57').

The match was played at BetBoom Arena in Ufa.

FC UFA vs Enisey — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: FC UFA 3–0 Enisey