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FC UFA vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
7/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

FC UFA35%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Moscow38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.20
Dinamo Moscow
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.02
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

FC UFA
1.11
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
62%
FC UFA or Dinamo Moscow
73%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
65%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
15%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
34%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
48%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.02 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + FC UFA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC UFA scores more
35%
level
27%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
38%

Dinamo Moscow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC UFA vs Dinamo Moscow

Dinamo Moscow beat FC UFA 3-2 in Premier League on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.