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FC UFA vs Chayka — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chayka
Chayka
11/12/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 18BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC UFA50%
×Draw28%
Chayka22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.39
Chayka
0.83

FC UFA creates 67% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.56
Chayka
1.22

allows per match

FC UFA
0.44
Chayka
1.22

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
78%
FC UFA or Chayka
72%
Draw or Chayka
50%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
24%
Chayka wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
75%
FC UFA 2+ goals
40%
FC UFA 3+ goals
16%
Chayka 1+ goals
56%
Chayka 2+ goals
20%
Chayka 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
69%
Chayka (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Chayka away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.56 + Chayka defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Chayka attack 1.22 + FC UFA defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC UFA scores more
50%
level
28%
Chayka scores more
22%

FC UFA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: FC UFA 2–1 Chayka

FC UFA beat Chayka 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.