FC UFA 2–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

FC UFA

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

V. Lozhkin 32'

A. Tenyaev 20'

A. Khugaev 90+2'

4/12/2025

First League · Round 28BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA38%

×Draw27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.21

FC UFA

1.28

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

1.23

creates per match

1.24

1.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FC UFA

1.23

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

FC UFA

1.17

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

65%

FC UFA or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

73%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

62%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

17%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

72%

FC UFA 2+ goals

37%

FC UFA 3+ goals

14%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

70%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

34%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

52%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC UFA scores more

38%

level

27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

35%

FC UFA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Tenyaev

32'

V. Lozhkin

46'

V. Nafikov← R. Daurov

59'

Murat Yshyk

67'

David Kokoev II← A. Kozyrev

67'

T. Bulatsev← S. Kachmazov

70'

S. Isaev← A. Anisimov

70'

K. Troyanov← V. Lozhkin

71'

Aleksandr Tenyaev

86'

I. Chernyak← N. Matskharashvili

90+4'

D. Stotskiy← A. Gurenko

90+2'

A. Khugaev

Statistics

FCAlaniya

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0