FC UFA 1–2 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats | Cup

FC UFA

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Akhmat Grozny

D. Ortíz 67' (pen)

L. Sadulaev 45'

G. Agalarov 36'

2/26/2023

Cup · Regions Path - Quarter-finals - 1st RoundBetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC UFA44%

×Draw27%

Akhmat Grozny29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

FC UFA

1.36

Akhmat Grozny

1.04

FC UFA creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

1.20

creates per match

1.29

0.80

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FC UFA

1.20

Akhmat Grozny

1.29

allows per match

FC UFA

0.80

Akhmat Grozny

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

71%

FC UFA or Akhmat Grozny

73%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

56%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

21%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

74%

FC UFA 2+ goals

39%

FC UFA 3+ goals

16%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

65%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

28%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

61%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.20 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.29 + FC UFA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC UFA scores more

44%

level

27%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

29%

FC UFA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

5'

36'

40'

45'

46'

I. Temnikov← A. Khugaev

52'

Andrey Semenov

67'

D. OrtízPenalty

69'

V. Iljin← L. Sadulaev

72'

R. Minaev← A. Golubev

81'

D. Akhatov← A. Nikitin

84'

A. Timofeev← I. Oleynikov

Statistics

FCAkhmat

Overview

5Corners1

Discipline

3Yellow Cards4