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FC Tulsa vs Union Omaha — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
FT
2 – 0
Union Omaha
Union Omaha
2/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Tulsa59%
×Draw27%
Union Omaha13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.40
Union Omaha
0.50

FC Tulsa creates 180% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.40
Union Omaha
0.40

allows per match

FC Tulsa
0.60
Union Omaha
1.40

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Union Omaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
87%
FC Tulsa or Union Omaha
73%
Draw or Union Omaha
41%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
30%
Union Omaha wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
75%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
41%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
17%
Union Omaha 1+ goals
39%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
9%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
82%
Union Omaha (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.40 + Union Omaha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union Omaha attack 0.40 + FC Tulsa defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
59%
level
27%
Union Omaha scores more
13%

FC Tulsa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tulsa vs Union Omaha

FC Tulsa beat Union Omaha 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 28, 2026.