FC Tulsa 3–3 Phoenix Rising: Result & Stats

FC Tulsa

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Phoenix Rising

A. Souahy 57'

E. Laszo 50'

S. Stojanovic 1'

D. Formella 73' (pen)

R. Cabral 42', 39' (pen)

4/6/2024

USL Championship · Round 5ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Tulsa39%

×Draw25%

Phoenix Rising36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TulsaExpected goals in this matchPhoenix Rising

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.41

FC Tulsa

1.48

Phoenix Rising

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 136 away

1.45

creates per match

1.40

1.42

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

FC Tulsa

1.45

Phoenix Rising

1.40

allows per match

FC Tulsa

1.42

Phoenix Rising

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Phoenix Rising →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw

64%

FC Tulsa or Phoenix Rising

75%

Draw or Phoenix Rising

61%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

19%

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

77%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

43%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

19%

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

76%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

41%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

52%

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Tulsa scores more

39%

level

25%

Phoenix Rising scores more

36%

FC Tulsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

S. Stojanovic↳ A. Dalou

8'

A. Dalou

39'

R. CabralPenalty

42'

R. Cabral↳ R. Zambrano

50'

E. Laszo↳ J. Portillo

57'

A. Souahy↳ J. Portillo

61'

E. Cuello

62'

M. Yosef← B. Diallo

66'

D. Formella← P. Armenakas

66'

Gabi Torres← E. Rito

66'

J. Hernández← G. Doratiotto

71'

B. Bourgeois

71'

M. Yousef

73'

D. FormellaPenalty

77'

C. Ponce← B. Ferri

77'

Diogo Pacheco← S. Stojanovic

82'

M. Traore← J. Azócar

88'

N. Worth← A. Dalou

90'

E. Gallardo← R. Cabral

FC

Phoenix

1

Novo

72

▼

3

27

4

26

A

Zambrano

91

⚽2

▼

Cabral

14

Cuello

6

▼

Doratiott

77

▼

Azócar

21

▼

Armenakas

24

Roggeveen

3

⚽

22

4

20

43

A

Portillo

8

▼

Ferri

17

⚽

Laszo

6

▼

Diallo

21

A

▼

Dalou

19

⚽

▼

Stojanovi

Manager: M. Sanchez

62'▲M. Yosef←▼B. Diallo

77'▲C. Ponce←▼B. Ferri

77'▲Diogo Pacheco←▼S. Stojanovic

88'▲N. Worth←▼A. Dalou

FC Tulsa substitutes

11Yosef5Ponce70Pacheco18Worth47Clair66Sanchez1Creek13Filho33Kačinari

Manager: J. Guerra

66'▲D. Formella←▼P. Armenakas

66'▲Gabi Torres←▼E. Rito

66'▲J. Hernández←▼G. Doratiotto

82'▲M. Traore←▼J. Azócar

90'▲E. Gallardo←▼R. Cabral

Phoenix Rising substitutes

29Formella16Torres8Hernández5Traore7Gallardo10Varela22Rakovsky