FC Tulsa 2–1 Northern Colorado: Result & Stats

FC Tulsa

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Northern Colorado

M. Yosef 45+1'

Diogo Pacheco 39' (pen)

I. Martínez 65'

4/18/2024

US Open Cup · 3rd RoundHurricane Track

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Tulsa42%

×Draw22%

Northern Colorado36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TulsaExpected goals in this matchNorthern Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.67

FC Tulsa

1.83

Northern Colorado

1.67

FC Tulsa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FC Tulsa

2.33

Northern Colorado

1.33

allows per match

FC Tulsa

2.00

Northern Colorado

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Northern Colorado →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw

64%

FC Tulsa or Northern Colorado

78%

Draw or Northern Colorado

58%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

22%

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

84%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

54%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

28%

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

81%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

50%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

54%

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 2.33 + Northern Colorado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Northern Colorado attack 1.33 + FC Tulsa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Tulsa scores more

42%

level

22%

Northern Colorado scores more

36%

FC Tulsa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. Opara

29'

M. Yosef← Jean Filho

39'

Diogo PachecoPenalty

45+1'

M. Yosef

46'

M. Hernández← B. King

46'

57'

57'

63'

63'

I. Martínez← I. Parra

65'

I. Martínez↳ N. Powder

69'

A. Kacinari

70'

S. Stojanovic← B. Ferri

71'

C. Ponce← A. Dalou

81'

B. Diallo← A. Kačinari

81'

R. Tetteh← Sebastian Sanchez

Northern

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Sanchez

29'▲M. Yosef←▼Jean Filho

70'▲S. Stojanovic←▼B. Ferri

71'▲C. Ponce←▼A. Dalou

81'▲B. Diallo←▼A. Kačinari

81'▲R. Tetteh←▼Sebastian Sanchez

FC Tulsa substitutes

11Yosef19Stojanovic5Ponce6Diallo12Tetteh24Roggeveen66Sanchez

Manager: Éamon Zayed

46'▲M. Hernández←▼B. King

46'▲D. Robles←▼B. Evans

63'▲E. Hoard←▼E. Kwakwa

63'▲I. Martínez←▼I. Parra

Northern Colorado substitutes

11Hernández34Robles20Hoard30Martínez6Dietrich12Shealy23Keegan

Match Recap: FC Tulsa vs Northern Colorado

FC Tulsa beat Northern Colorado 2-1 in US Open Cup on April 18, 2024.

Goals: Diogo Pacheco (39' pen), M. Yosef (45+1'), I. Martínez (65').

The match was played at Hurricane Track in Tulsa.

FC Tulsa vs Northern Colorado — US Open Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FC Tulsa vs Northern Colorado