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FC Tulsa vs North Texas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
North Texas
North Texas
2/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Tulsa58%
×Draw23%
North Texas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.86
North Texas
0.97

FC Tulsa creates 92% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.40
North Texas
1.33

allows per match

FC Tulsa
0.60
North Texas
2.33

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
North Texas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

North Texas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
81%
FC Tulsa or North Texas
77%
Draw or North Texas
42%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
34%
North Texas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
84%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
55%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
28%
North Texas 1+ goals
62%
North Texas 2+ goals
25%
North Texas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
75%
North Texas (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

North Texas away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.40 + North Texas defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

North Texas attack 1.33 + FC Tulsa defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
58%
level
23%
North Texas scores more
19%

FC Tulsa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FC Tulsa 3–0 North Texas

FC Tulsa beat North Texas 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.