FC Tulsa 4–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves: Result & Stats

FC Tulsa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chattanooga Red Wolves

6/29/2025

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 6ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Tulsa62%

×Draw18%

Chattanooga Red Wolves19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TulsaExpected goals in this matchChattanooga Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.33

FC Tulsa

2.50

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.33

FC Tulsa creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

FC Tulsa

2.00

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.00

allows per match

FC Tulsa

1.67

Chattanooga Red Wolves

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw

81%

FC Tulsa or Chattanooga Red Wolves

82%

Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves

38%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

41%

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

92%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

71%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

45%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

74%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

38%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

77%

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 2.00 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.00 + FC Tulsa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Tulsa scores more

62%

level

18%

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

19%

FC Tulsa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff