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FC Tshikas vs Malole — Ligue 1 2019

FC Tshikas
FC Tshikas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Malole
Malole
11/26/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Tshikas48%
×Draw28%
Malole24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tshikas
1.34
Malole
0.85

FC Tshikas creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Tshikas
0.93
Malole
0.64

allows per match

FC Tshikas
1.07
Malole
1.76

finishing

FC Tshikas+0.00on par
Malole+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tshikas ↓

Malole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Tshikas or draw
76%
FC Tshikas or Malole
72%
Draw or Malole
52%

Winning margin

FC Tshikas wins by 2+
23%
Malole wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Tshikas 1+ goals
74%
FC Tshikas 2+ goals
39%
FC Tshikas 3+ goals
15%
Malole 1+ goals
57%
Malole 2+ goals
21%
Malole 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Tshikas (draw refunded)
67%
Malole (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tshikas at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Malole away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tshikas attack 0.93 + Malole defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.34

Malole attack 0.64 + FC Tshikas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Tshikas scores more
48%
level
28%
Malole scores more
24%

FC Tshikas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Tshikas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: FC Tshikas 2–2 Malole

FC Tshikas and Malole drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on November 26, 2025.