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FC Tokyo vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
6/28/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 22Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

FC Tokyo54%
×Draw24%
Yokohama FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.67
Yokohama FC
0.97

FC Tokyo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 72 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.48
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.17
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
78%
FC Tokyo or Yokohama FC
76%
Draw or Yokohama FC
46%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
29%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
81%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
50%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
23%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
62%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
25%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
71%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 149 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.48 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.67

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + FC Tokyo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
54%
level
24%
Yokohama FC scores more
22%

FC Tokyo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: FC Tokyo 2–1 Yokohama FC

FC Tokyo beat Yokohama FC 2-1 in J1 League on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.