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FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
A. Scholz 90' (pen)
T. Ko 89'
K. Tanimura 62', 59'
T. Kida 51'
9/28/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 32Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

FC Tokyo44%
×Draw25%
Yokohama F. Marinos31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.54
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.25

FC Tokyo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.64
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.26

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.23
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.44

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.27scores less
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.24scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
69%
FC Tokyo or Yokohama F. Marinos
75%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
56%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
22%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
79%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
45%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
20%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
71%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
36%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
59%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 41 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.64 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.26 + FC Tokyo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
44%
level
25%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
31%

FC Tokyo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
A. ScholzFC TokyoFC Tokyo · D
8.2

Match Events

20'
Jordy Croux
31'
K. Watanabe← Jean Claude
34'
Kaina Tanimura
45+6'
Kaina TanimuraGoal cancelled
51'
T. Kida↳ R. Tsunoda
59'
K. Tanimura↳ A. Uenaka
60'
Marcos Guilherme← K. Tawaratsumida
60'
K. Sato← T. Nakagawa
62'
K. Tanimura↳ J. Croux
65'
Yuto Nagatomo
66'
J. Amano← J. Croux
66'
R. Miyaichi← Yuri Araujo
78'
K. Yamashita← Marcelo Ryan
80'
Keita Endo
81'
R. Yamane← T. Kida
81'
G. Onaiwu← A. Uenaka
84'
K. Higashi← K. Hashimoto
84'
L. Nozawa← K. Endo
89'
T. Ko
90'
A. ScholzPenalty

Possession

67%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

55%FC

Statistics

FCYokohama
Overview
67%Possession33%
16Total Shots9
1.84Expected Goals (xG)0.96
5Corners3
11Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots9
7On Target4
8Off Target5
1Blocked0
10Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
524Total Passes254
429Accurate Passes169
82%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

J1 League: FC Tokyo 2–3 Yokohama F. Marinos

Yokohama F. Marinos beat FC Tokyo 3-2 in J1 League on September 28, 2025.

Goals: T. Kida (51'), K. Tanimura (59', 62'), T. Ko (89'), A. Scholz (90' pen).

FC Tokyo controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.