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FC Tokyo vs Shanghai Shenhua — AFC Champions League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
11/24/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Tokyo52%
×Draw29%
Shanghai Shenhua20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.33
Shanghai Shenhua
0.71

FC Tokyo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.00
Shanghai Shenhua
0.67

allows per match

FC Tokyo
0.75
Shanghai Shenhua
1.67

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
80%
FC Tokyo or Shanghai Shenhua
71%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
48%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
25%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
74%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
38%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
15%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
51%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
16%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
72%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.00 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + FC Tokyo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
52%
level
29%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
20%

FC Tokyo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: FC Tokyo 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat FC Tokyo 1-0 in AFC Champions League on November 24, 2020.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.