Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
Preview
10:30
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
9/6/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 6Ajinomoto Stadium
Big match
55%
FC Tokyo
model favours
55%22%23%

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Tokyo55%
×Draw22%
Kyoto Sanga23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.99
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

FC Tokyo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
2.19
Kyoto Sanga
1.33

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.08
Kyoto Sanga
1.79

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.02on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.50scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
77%
FC Tokyo or Kyoto Sanga
78%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
45%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
32%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
86%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
59%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
32%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
70%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
34%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
71%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.08 · 6 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.19 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + FC Tokyo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
55%
level
22%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
23%

FC Tokyo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Tokyo
Attack-heavy
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
50%Possession51%
80%Pass accuracy71%
13.9Shots12.8
1.73xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC TokyoKyoto Sanga

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
FC Tokyo
0
Draws
4
Kyoto Sanga
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 13%
0–40–30–32–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tokyo
LDLDW
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Tokyo face Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)

J1 League returns with FC Tokyo hosting Kyoto Sanga. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Tokyo host Kyoto Sanga at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.