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FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
9/18/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Japan National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Tokyo54%
×Draw22%
Kyoto Sanga23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.92
Kyoto Sanga
1.18

FC Tokyo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
2.19
Kyoto Sanga
1.28

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.08
Kyoto Sanga
1.65

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.02on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.35scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
77%
FC Tokyo or Kyoto Sanga
78%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
46%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
31%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
85%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
57%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
30%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
69%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
33%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
70%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.08 · 6 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.19 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.28 + FC Tokyo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
54%
level
22%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
23%

FC Tokyo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: FC Tokyo 2–0 Kyoto Sanga

FC Tokyo beat Kyoto Sanga 2-0 in J1 League on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Japan National Stadium in Tokyo.